Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
A new western disturbance brought thunderstorms and rain to parts of northern India, with hailstorms and snow reported in several regions. The weather caused flooding in Jammu and Kashmir and prompted a yellow alert in Delhi.
Jammu and Kashmir is facing a severe water crisis this year due to a massive rainfall deficit. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has expressed concern about the situation and called for a proactive approach towards water management and conservation. The state has witnessed an 80% deficit in rainfall this year, raising the possibility of drought in the valley this summer. Several water bodies are flowing below the zero level mark, and some springs in south Kashmir have dried up completely. The water level in Jhelum and other major streams is alarmingly low.
The famed Darjeeling tea may have slip to a new production low in 2025, as changing weather patterns, a shortage of pluckers and mounting economic stress weigh on the region's gardens.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
Monsoon in August was almost 24 per cent below normal, which was the sixth driest August since 1901. It came on the back of a 7-per cent monsoon shortfall in July.
Heatwave may abate over most parts of North India in next two days; temperatures likely to drop by 2-3C.
Kharif crops were sown in only 4.15 lakh hectares against the target of 28.27 lakh hectares till July 21 or only in 14.71 per cent of the arable land.
The value of the rupee, which has slipped to the 92 per dollar mark, does not accurately reflect India's stellar economic fundamentals, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
The power sector presents a puzzle. A fast-growing economy should be aligned to higher power demand but that hasn't been the case in the financial year 2026 till date (FY26TD).
In another forecast for August, IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said monsoon is also likely to be normal in the month.
Though monsoon risks to overall economic growth could be limited due to small share of agriculture output in GDP, the impact may be significant because it affects the poor through inflation and income, RBI noted in its 'First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13'.
Around 300 athletes were expected to compete in four snow sports -- ski mountaineering, alpine skiing, snowboard, and Nordic skiing -- in the games, which had been due to be held from February 22 to 25.
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
The rainfall in July was minus seven per cent which comes to around 93 per cent of the Long Period Average, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said.
ISRO has projected wheat production of 122.24 million tonnes.
The national capital was in the grip of a cold wave, with the sun largely obscured by clouds and pollutants lingering in the atmosphere, leading to reduced visibility. At least 129 flights were cancelled at the Delhi airport on Saturday due to dense fog, according to an official.
Addressing a press conference virtually, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September was likely to witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm.
Himachal Pradesh experienced its second snowfall of the season, leading to the closure of 15 roads, including two national highways. A tourist from New Delhi died in an accident on an icy road in the Lahaul Spiti district, while three others sustained injuries.
Rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September, the IMD said.
East and northeast India recorded 29 per cent rain deficit -- 141.5 mm against the normal of 199.9 mm -- from March 1 to May 3.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
A prolonged break in monsoon rains in most parts of the country is threatening to hit the yield of kharif crops. It could even delay the upcoming rabi sowing. Major agricultural states, such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat, have witnessed a deficit of 30-80 per cent in southwest monsoon rainfall in August compared to the long-period average for the month. Meteorologists see no big revival in monsoon rains from hereon, though they forecast "some activity" over the Bay of Bengal on September 5-6.
Because the ecology of various regions differs, it is silly to club them all under one countrywide average number, says Nitin Sethi.
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
As in 2009, the India Meteorological Department is understating the effect of the delayed, deficient monsoon.
According to a research report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, despite better rains the growth forecast for this fiscal is likely to be around 5.6 per cent.
The Northern Railways said it has cancelled around 17 trains and diverted around 12 others, while traffic has been suspended at four locations due to waterlogging.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
In the months immediately following the 2024 tragedy, reporting on the landslide per se had been a straightforward affair. On one side was death and destruction. On the other side, survivors and the business of survival. It was black and white. What direction to take was clear. Rehabilitation in comparison, felt like a complex situation. One that is fraught with shades of grey. As grey as human life, explains Shyam G Menon.
Automobile (auto) retail sales in India grew by an impressive 14 per cent in July compared to the same period last year, driven by a surge in the rural economy, good product availability, and product launches. While passenger vehicles (PVs) saw a 10 per cent increase during this period, inventory levels have surged to a historic high of 67-72 days in PVs, equating to Rs 73,000 crore worth of stock, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (Fada). This poses a risk to dealer sustainability. Inventory levels in July 2023 were only 50-55 days, equating to a stock worth Rs 49,833 crore. In June 2024, inventory was between 62 and 67 days, with a stock value of Rs 60,000 crore.
A day after Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar demanded central assistance of Rs 12,000 crore to tide over the drought in 33 of the 38 districts in the state, opposition leaders appeared keener to politicise the issue by portaying themselves as champions of millions of drought-hit farmers.
The rains have so far been four per cent below normal.
Meteorologists earlier said Cyclone 'Biparjoy' had been impacting the intensity of the monsoon and that its onset over Kerala would be 'mild'.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday said India's growing water shortage can disrupt farm and industry sectors and is detrimental to the credit health of the sovereign as rising food inflation and decline in income may spark social unrest. It said decreases in water supply can disrupt agricultural production and industrial operations, resulting in inflation in food prices and hence can be detrimental to credit health of sectors that heavily consume water, such as coal power generators and steel-makers.
In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
Morgan Stanley sees a downside risk o 30-60 bps
Twelve of the 36 meteorological subdivisions recorded deficient rainfall, while the rest witnessed normal to excess rain. In total, 38 per cent of the 662 districts received below-normal rain.
'All El Ninos are not associated with the deficient monsoon.'
On the revenue front, the finance ministry was expecting higher proceeds from non-tax revenue.
